With the 2025 NFL Draft in the books, we have more actionable data on where players should be drafted. The offseason is now 95% complete. A handful of things will happen in training camp, but hardly any that could or should impact player value (irrespective of injuries).

It’s not just about who was drafted, but also about who wasn’t drafted, and what that says about players currently on the roster and how we should expect those veterans to be utilized. And, of course, we have to project key rookies based on where they were drafted and their new team environment.

Players are being drafted right now for 2025 in Best Ball leagues. So I will use that data, as well as early expert consensus, for reference in saying why, right now, it seems very wrong. By August, I expect the market to move decisively in the direction I forecast below (though I hope it doesn’t, so I have a chance of getting huge surplus value in the summer). This is not a complete list. I’ll continue this kind of coverage the rest of the spring and all summer. These topics are just at the top of my mind right now.

Jacksonville’s passing game

The Jaguars are using Travis Hunter primarily as a wide receiver, according to his new head coach. So they traded a QB price to move up three spots and take a wide receiver. They obviously consider Hunter a generational receiving prospect. Will he get snaps at corner? Sure, perhaps the last couple of minutes of close games. Maybe on passing downs in the red zone. I do not expect more than 10 to 15 defensive snaps per game. So his snap rate on offense will likely be 85-90% instead of 95-100%. Not a big deal. Last year, we had receivers drafted fourth (Marvin Harrison Jr.) and sixth (Malik Nabers) overall in the NFL draft. That translated to WR8 (Harrison) and WR18 (Nabers), on average, in fantasy drafts. Pre-draft, and before the news about being a primary WR was confirmed, Hunter was WR58 in NFFC and WR27 in Underdog. His post-draft, post-WR news consensus expert rank is a ho-hum WR32. All of these numbers are madness. Hunter has to be WR20, at a minimum, and probably closer to WR15, and I don’t even like rookie WRs at market prices generally.

I did love the discount on Brian Thomas Jr. last year, and this year he’s barely moved with the Hunter news — he’s in the WR7 to WR9 range no matter where and when you look. I’ll quibble with this and say Thomas should be WR10 (early-to-mid second round). Thomas proved last year he doesn’t need a lion’s share of targets to dominate. Hunter also projects as a very explosive and efficient weapon. Thomas will not get in Hunter’s way (and vice versa) due to the Jaguars’ passing tree being so narrow (no big-name TE or third WR or big receiving threat at RB). I see Jacksonville having two top-20 fantasy receivers.

Yet Trevor Lawrence has not moved. He’s QB19 or 20, wherever you look, pre-draft or post-draft … it doesn’t matter. Did you know Lawrence has already delivered a QB7 fantasy season in 2022? Now he has a pair of wideouts comparable to Joe Burrow, and Burrow is QB5. I see Lawrence at QB10 at a minimum, and I’ll decisively rank him ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix (come on, Bo Nix?!?). Of course, I’ll draft Hunter and Lawrence as late as you let me, but this is the gift of the century at the moment.

Chargers’ running backs

I’ve had a winning strategy generally (not in every case, of course) of taking the second guy in guaranteed two-man backfields. Whoever it is. It’s not the player, it’s the price. Omarion Hampton just landed in the worst place imaginable. Najee Harris was given $5 million this year, with incentives of up to $9 million, as a priority free agent. He’s had 1,000 rushing yards every season, and that means something. I see both backs getting 225-250 touches. I would assume Harris gets the goal-line work. Hampton probably gets third downs. They should both be in the RB25 bucket, but the market has Hampton at about 20 and Harris at 30. On Underdog, Hampton has been RB15 (I’d agree if the Broncos drafted him, as was the consensus). Now both are Zero RBs, meaning sixth round or later — in Harris’ case, much later. The whole point of Zero RB is not to be picky. When life gives you lemons, like the Hampton landing spot, make lemonade.

New York Jets’ quarterback

The Jets did not address QB at all, so now it’s Justin Fields or bust. While Fields will probably bust in reality, he’ll likely be a winning fantasy QB. Last year in his six starts with the Steelers, when he ran reluctantly, he was QB6 — five rushing TDs despite, for him, a surprisingly modest yardage total. Yet he’s now QB16 at Fanball, QB13 at Underdog and QB13 according to post-draft expert consensus. There is a 100% chance a healthy Fields starts the season at QB for the Jets, who addressed the offensive line again and have five good players there who average 24.4 years of age.

Fields has long been a fantasy darling, but he’s running headfirst into “cursed Jets” sentiment, and the latter is winning. But I don’t believe in voodoo. I’m taking Fields 100 times out of 100 over Mahomes (though again, no one will make me), Nix and Kyler Murray. It’s not even close with those guys. Mahomes is the new Troy Aikman, meaning great in reality but barely playable in fantasy. Spoiler alert: That’s a topic for another day.

San Francisco’s tight end

San Francisco has broomed Deebo Samuel; Brandon Aiyuk probably is out the first six weeks of the 2025 season (or at least largely compromised); and they did not address wide receiver in the NFL draft.

In games the past three seasons when either Samuel or Aiyuk were sidelined (just one of them, not both), Kittle averaged 2.5 yards per route (incredible) and 11.9 yards per target (off the charts for a tight end). He hauled in a TD every 9.2 targets. Kittle will run 450 routes, and probably 500, all without Samuel, and probably a fair number without Aiyuk. That’s 1,125 to 1,250 receiving yards. Historically, he only needs 105 targets to crack 1,200 yards. Add 11 receiving TDs at his historic rate when he’s the primary weapon (or at least the No. 2 weapon). So that’s my 2025 Kittle projection: 105 targets, 85 catches, 1,250 yards, 11 TDs. Giddy-up!

Oh, with both Samuel and Aiyuk on the field, Kittle averages 1.7 yards per route, 9.3 per target and a TD every 13.7 targets — a totally different player. While I respect both Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings, they are not alpha players or priority targets in a game plan. The Niners just gave Kittle, 31, a record-setting contract that pays him like a top wide receiver. Kittle will be peak Travis Kelce over the next two to three years. He’s one of the top handful of players at any position of his generation.