The
Pittsburgh Pirates (19-35) and the
Arizona Diamondbacks (26-27) open a 3-game set Monday. First pitch from Chase Field in Phoenix is set for 8:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let's analyze
BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert
MLB picks and predictions for the best bets. The Pirates split a 4-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers in Pittsburgh, wrapping up the set with a 6-5 loss as +142 underdogs Sunday with the Over (8.5) cashing. The Pirates had a 5-3 lead and a 90.1% win probability with 1 out in the top of the eighth inning, according to ESPN Analytics, but gave up 3 runs in the frame. Despite the loss, Pittsburgh is 4-2 in its last 6 games -- its best 6-game stretch of the season. The Diamondbacks have dropped 5 straight -- for the first time this season -- and were swept in 3 games at the St. Louis Cardinals. They lost 4-3 as +111 underdogs in the Sunday finale with the total (7) pushing. 3B
Eugenio Suárez (3-for-4, 2 RBIs) singled in 2 runs in the first inning Sunday and scored in the sixth on a base hit by DH
Pavin Smith (2-for-3, 1 RBI).
Pirates at Diamondbacks projected starters
Heaney (3-3, 2.91 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 55 2/3 innings. Nelson (1-1, 4.60 ERA) makes his third start and 12th appearance. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 31 1/3 innings.
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Provided by
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USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:01 a.m. ET.
Pirates at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
It's unlikely that the Diamondbacks (-185) will lose a sixth straight game. However, the preferred play is to bet them on the run line at greater odds.
PASS on the ML.
The Pirates are just 8-11 on the run line as away underdogs this season, per TeamRankings.com. While they have won 4 of their last 6 games straight up, it's unlikely they can maintain that level of success with the worst offense in MLB, averaging 3.04 runs per game.
BET DIAMONDBACKS -1.5 (+105) .
Both teams have been profitable Under bets this season with the Under going 31-20-3 (60.8%) in Pittsburgh's games and 26-22-5 (54.2%) for Arizona. Nelson has allowed 2 runs or fewer in both of his starts this season, while Heaney has allowed a total of just 4 runs in 16 innings over his last 3 outings.
BET UNDER 9 (+100) .
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